Russia from the Inside Out: A Storm Gathers
By Janosh Neumann, Skytop Contributor / October 17th, 2022
Janosh Neumann is a former Russian FSB counterintelligence officer who was appointed by the Russian government to supervise internationally the multibillion money laundering operation for the state. He later defected and was brought to the United States by U.S. government agencies. After that he was a consultant for a variety of U.S. government agencies, helping them with investigations related to Russian intelligence, money laundering, and the fight against Eurasian organized crime groups.
For Janosh, joining the State security was a given. Both his parents had worked for the KGB and other elements of the state security apparatus, so it was effectively the “family business.” But once you’re in this line of work, there’s no way out. As the saying goes, “there’s no such thing as an ex-spy.”
A Most Acute Crisis
At this moment, Russia is experiencing the most acute crisis of statehood in the last hundred years.
This crisis could result in the complete collapse of its current state: the internal political situation in Russia can only be compared with the crisis of February-March 1917. There are many contradictions alive in Russia, along with the delayed and conserved consequences of the destruction of statehood in 1991. This includes the wide chasm between rich and poor, the arbitrariness and inertness of the gigantic state bureaucracy, and the almost complete absence in most regions to cause initiatives needed to cause change, a holdover from Russian central control.
Add to this the negative selection of elites, which began in the late 1970s. This has led to the self-liquidation of the Red Empire, the emergence of oligarchs and the transformation of corruption, specifically the thirst for profit and enrichment into the basis of the Russian state system.
Notable Moments
Beginning in the 1990’s, the present Russian state system is attributed to notable and acute moments.
Elites in Russia are divided into three camps, reminiscent of Game of Thrones, however adapted to harsh Russian realities, referred to here as The Game of the Kremlin Towers.
The first tower is The Hawks. They stand for a tough confrontation with the West, a war waged on what Russia refers to as the Territory of the Ukraine, and the complete destruction of America-centric world order. This can be summarized as moving the vector of dominance from West to East with Russia and China in the lead, thereby creating a new multipolar world order.
In short, this means the construction and development of Russia as a separate unique civilization, continent and a state.
The second tower is Pro -Western Elites. This includes liberals and supporters of a global world order under U.S. hegemony.
They are completely satisfied with the results of the privatization of the 90s. They prefer stability over change, and they consider Russia only as a tool to amass their personal wealth. They associate Europe and the United States as a place for a comfortable life for themselves and their families. They are in favor of ending confrontation with the West on any terms, returning to the model of existence that was before February 24, 2022, which is described as the full integration of Russia into the Western system of values. This includes the Western global economic model, where Russia is assigned the role of a raw material base.
The third tower is referred to as “Prisposoblentsy” (“Adapters”). This group can survive under any form of power and is focused only on meeting their needs. They will do this by means of close interaction with the authorities and meeting the needs of financial and political groups located in the Kremlin in a specific time interval.
Prisposoblentsy includes state and regional officials, business representatives and intellectuals who have chosen a wait-and-see attitude and will take the side of the winners in the battle between the first two towers. They do not care what regime rules in Russia, who is at the head of the global system and what place Russia occupies in it. They are focused only on their own comfort and safety and are ready to follow in the wake of the winners.
And finally, there is the fourth and main participant in this game. This participant is the people of Russia. A nation that has endured a litany of trials and suffering over the past hundred years. A nation that feels betrayed and insulted because of the collapse of the USSR and because of the catastrophic events of the 1990s. For victory, one of the three towers will want to or need to win the support of the Russian people.
What Ukraine Means
Ukraine is just one of the elements seen in a larger war against East and West. But it was the war that provoked a sharp escalation within the already brewing confrontation with the Kremlin Towers. The war exposed a nerve and caused an irreversible awakening within Russian society.
Now Russia has reached a turning point.
Against the background of recent frustrations in Ukraine, and along with revelations of corruption in the Ministry of Defense, Russians are no longer silent. They are beginning to demand answers from the regime, wanting the truth and demanding measurable actions. In this situation, the Tower of Hawks took the lead and applied the time-tested formula of the KGB to gain support of the Russian people. In short, the formula is, “you cannot win, lead and take control.”
The freezing of more than 350 billion dollars of Russian assets in the West, (and other failures) along with its impact was blamed on the pro-Western liberals currently within the Russian government and the financial (I think it’s just wider term) system.
Losses experienced by Russian Oligarch’s, including their frozen assets, was accepted by the majority of the Russian people as revenge for privatization and the plunder of the country in the 1990s. Putin’s government stepped back from losses related to Western sanctions with an “I told you so”, referring to his disapproval of assets leaving Russia for safer havens. In the media, The Hawks withdraw themselves from helping the injured oligarchs. Privatization and threats to revisit the rules applied to the Oligarchs’ ability to amass wealth started to be seen in the press, specific to certain oligarchs, depending upon their support of the Russian Federation in Ukraine.
Patriotism Mislabeled
There is an old Soviet slogan, “The army is the people.” In other words, the people are expected to support the army, in a show of patriotism. The Tower of Hawks immediately turned to this slogan to create public support for the Ukraine campaign.
The Hawks promoted the total mobilization of the economy. This includes the transition of everything to a military footing, everything for victory. The Hawks also perfectly remember the lessons of history namely what happened in March 1917. After a series of failures during WWI and along with growing economic problems there was mass discontent. The Russian elites then mobilized against Emperor Nicholas II and forced him to abdicate. Six months later elites lost everything, and the Russian people demolished them.
The Tower of Hawks effectively decided to unite around its leader and take control of the people’s anger. The pro-Western elites and others working to stay away from the war are being turned into outcasts. They are equated with national traitors, foreign agents and as enemies of the people. This creates pressure within Russian society and actually forces out all those who in one way or another considered themselves to be in opposition to the current regime.
Several hundred thousand people left Russia following the announcement of mobilization, playing into the hands of the Kremlin Hawks.
An opposition asset that could be used in protest movements has self-liquidated. And even if they were to return to the country, in the eyes of the majority of the population, they would be labeled as deserters and internal enemies.
All or Nothing
The Kremlin Hawks need to consolidate society and for this they need three main components, an external enemy, an internal enemy and a common idea.
So far, they have managed to clearly identify the first two elements: the external enemy as the collective West, the internal enemy as the pro-Western liberal domestic Russian opposition. The formation of the third element is in full swing and may be called the creation of a common idea/ideology.
Russia is a huge, multinational, multicultural country, and consolidating it is not a simple task.
The Hawks are actively using the idea of the Russian world as a basis for consolidating a multicultural nation. They found a way to unite around cultural differences and traditional conservative values. This includes the integration and association of all peoples and national minorities of Russia into the concept of the Russian World. At the same time, the preservation of their national and cultural identity is encouraged in every possible way. This idea essentially repeats the idea of the Bolsheviks about the creation of the Soviet Man, with the only difference that now it is based on a cultural code and not on a political idea.
This idea enables the Kremlin Hawks to use all the peoples and national minorities of Russia to achieve their foreign and domestic political goals.
The Hawks cannot afford to lose and will fight to the end, for them this is the only way to survive and maintain power. They are ready for unpopular and tough decisions. The Hawks are ready to sacrifice that part of the elite, which they have recorded (maybe say labeled) in the category of enemies of the people.
Russia and Russian foreign policy correlate with another slogan from the distant 1920’s of the last century, called “The Internationale.” Its lyrics suggest that Russia, as part of a peoples’ movement, destroy the whole world, one existing of violence, to the ground and then build, through its own vision of “we”, a new world.
The only difference between then and now is that Russia is led by a newly empowered bourgeoisie close to the Kremlin, which uses the people and its resources to achieve its own purposes.