Putin’s Palace Crumbles: Russians Vote with Their Feet
By Tom Rakusan, Contributing Author/ September 30, 2022
Mr. Rakusan recently retired from the Federal Government after 39 years with various elements of the U.S. national security community. Mr. Rakusan’s focus has been on Eastern and Western Europe, the former Soviet states, and across the Middle East. He has served in a multitude of locations in these regions, as well as in Washington, working these issues in the national security community within various national security settings over several Administrations.
Mr. Rakusan has also led several large organizations. In these and other senior national security leadership positions, Mr. Rakusan led innovation and created multi-disciplinary teams to tackle the Nation’s most pressing national security challenges.
Mr. Rakusan is currently employed with a U.S. private equity firm, focusing on investments in companies developing tools needed by the U.S. national security community.
Putin’s Folly Continued…
As the Ukraine war started on February 24, 2022, and even earlier as Putin initiated the build-up of his forces, many analysts and observers rightly pointed out that “Putin has no reverse gear.” They were and are correct. Mr. Putin appears to be marching forward (not necessarily in military triumphs) in support of his misguided, 18th century vision of Russia’s greatness. And yet, he is making one strategic error after another. He is at best a poor tactical planner, not some strategic visionary.
The Source of Putin’s Failure
The source of Putin’s failure as a strategic leader is really his own psychology and personality. At the root of his neurotic behavior and poor decision making is his deep-seated paranoia. It’s been palpable since 2016 and went into overdrive with COVID induced isolation. Putin lives in a misguided world where he believes that Russia’s place on the global stage as an influential and powerful superpower is owed to Russia due to its inherent “greatness.” Putin seems to be missing the reality that the Russian and Soviet governance systems over the centuries never allowed the Russian people to thrive, to innovate, to create, and to have a positive influence on the world. Of course, there were exceptions in music, literature, the arts, and in some scientific achievements.
Like most Russian and Soviet leaders, all autocrats, Putin is unable to look in the mirror and come to the realization that perhaps the fault lies in Russia, with a multitude of generations of so-called leaders. Like many of his predecessors, Putin shifts the blame to others, and in most cases, to outside forces – the West.
One could ask why one cannot find either individuals or leaders who would point out this folly and lead a debate which could perhaps start a course correction.
While many observers and experts argue back and forth why this is the case, I would argue that the answer is relatively simple. Such individuals do exist, but most are afraid, with certain exceptions such as Mr. Navalny, to speak out. And those who do speak out often end up no longer among the living. As a result of this corrosive atmosphere within the leadership circles and within Russia’s civil society, Russia’s leaders end up “drinking their own Kool-Aid,” forging ahead with their own vision of Russia’s destiny, blaming outside forces for all of Russia’s ills and for their own failures.
The Case of Putin
He has created a leadership climate of fear among his closest allies and supporters. Putin demands blind loyalty and rewards his inner circle with financial gain emanating from state-imposed corruption. He punishes those who stray from his “line” with banishment from power, or much worse. Putin is thus isolated from others’ differing views, opinions, and judgement. We witness such behavior not only via analysis, but on a rare occasion when Putin scolds his own inner circle. For example, he did so following the invasion of Ukraine with Sergey Naryshkin, the Director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR).
As a result, Putin is destined to continue down the road of a series of strategic and tactical follies. Putin’s blunders are many – some are based on overt policy decisions, and many are examples of Russia’s asymmetric warfare carried out against the West.
The theme across his various ill-advised actions is to create the appearance of Russia’s greatness. Because Russia is not a superpower in any definition of the word, except for its possession of nuclear weapons, Putin must make it appear that Russia is a superpower. He cannot overnight create a social, technological, economic “miracle” where he could compete with the West or with today’s China. Putin instead relies on causing damage to those countries which he views as competitors and by enlarging Russia’s physical map, i.e., by invading his neighbors where Ukraine is only the latest example.
We can all agree that invading Ukraine was an error of huge proportions on humanitarian, political, economic, social, technological, and military grounds. And yet, Putin is not engaging in that “reverse gear” because he simply does not have one. He is blinded by ambition, his personal ambition, and by his erroneous worldview that Russia is a superpower being held back from its potential by outside forces. Even if there were those around him who would point to logical course corrections, they are not allowed to speak, or are afraid to speak and act.
Putin’s Long Series of Errors
It is difficult to list them all in this piece as there are many. Let’s start in 2007 when Putin presented his aggressive worldview at the Munich Security Conference.
He then invaded Georgia. He meddled in the internal affairs of western countries, including in the U.S. elections. Putin imposed his will on the political landscape of Ukraine until that effort failed in 2014 with the ouster of Putin’s crony Yanukovich. Putin’s military and intelligence apparatus conducted several assassinations, even using weapons of mass destruction to this end.
Putin intervened in Syria. He deployed his mercenary army, the Wagner Group, into Africa to exert influence and to garner natural resource riches. Putin annexed Crimea and part of the Donbas, and when he faced opposition from Kyiv, he invaded Ukraine.
And Putin’s folly does not stop there. Because his military is far from having superpower status, he failed in taking Kyiv, and he has failed in holding large swaths of Ukrainian territory. Instead of finding a way out while achieving a semblance of his aims, Putin announced a military mobilization in Russia.
What has transpired is a notable increase in the Russian population’s opposition to, or at least questioning of, Putin’s aims for his people. Most Russians were quiet about the Ukraine war, that is until the war came to their doorsteps with the announcement of the Mobilization.
Russians Voting with Their Feet
The war in Ukraine, earlier seen by many in Russia as far away and as another “special military operation,” has suddenly become personal. Most Russians were willing to forego McDonald’s and other products and services from Western companies. But, when there is a very real possibility of dying in Ukraine, they start to question the wisdom of their leader or his intent resulting in many “voting with their feet.”
Deflecting Blame
What was interesting was Putin’s announcement of the mobilization. Putin announced the mobilization by stating “based on the recommendation from the Defense Ministry,” instead of “I decided.” Putin was clearly creating a distance between himself and the mobilization. When it was clear that the Russian Defense Ministry botched the mobilization, Putin’s propagandists Vladimir Solovev and Margarita Simonyan blamed the snafus on mid-level bureaucrats in the military to deflect blame from the regime and Putin’s high-ranking cronies.
This was just another, albeit small, example of Putin’s desire to deflect any blame from his mistakes.
Putin always finds lieutenants to take the blame. He cannot be wrong and therefore someone must be the scapegoat. But when will the scapegoats turn on him?
Regional Referenda
The next folly was the forced referenda in regions of occupied Ukraine. Russian forces relied on violence and psychological warfare to force the local population to vote, and then they announced that 97 percent of votes were in favor of joining Russia.
This folly, Putin believes, will force the outside world to recognize those territories as Russian. In addition, Putin will likely claim that any western weapons used to attack those now “Russian” territories represent a western attack on Russia itself. Never mind that the West will not recognize the incorporation of these territories into Russia. As he always does, Putin will simply declare success with no regard for reality.
Nord Stream Narrative
And the asymmetrical warfare has not been replaced by conventional warfare in Ukraine. We do not yet know for certain who or what was behind the explosions and damage to the Nord Stream I and II pipelines.
This incident, however, does have all the markings of Russian symmetrical/psychological warfare. The possible reasons could be psychological, designed to give the Kremlin a political and influence advantage. By doing this, Putin would be able to accuse the United States and Ukraine of this sabotage and has already done so.
In addition, he would have the perfect excuse to not turn on Nord Stream I, by saying that the West damaged it and therefore, Russia cannot, should not, and will not repair the pipeline. This way, he could blame his cessation of gas deliveries on the West. This would shift the blame away from his decision and away from the genuine cause, that being Putin’s war against Ukraine.
Putin would have little to lose as the pipeline is already closed. Putin would, however, have something to gain. He could blame Western governments for the damage, sending a message to Western populations suffering from high gas prices that the cause of the energy crisis falls on Western governments. Analysts have already perceived a Gazprom statement as a threat that Russia could and would further limit its gas exports via Ukraine with Nord Stream out of commission, putting further pressure on Europe and the European Union.
Second Order Effects
All this would also create a second-order effect in dividing Western populations, causing impatience with Western governments’ decision to unify against Russia.
Putin has been trying to divide the West for years now. He thought he succeeded, and thus felt confident to invade Ukraine, thinking the West would not react. He was wrong to his own surprise. And thus, this incident could perhaps be another attempt to divide Western populations from their governments and to sow discord in the West, hoping this would lead to a reassessment of policies in the West against Russia.
The recent election in Italy will be (if it already is not) a target for Putin as right-wing governments tend to side with the Kremlin on most issues such as immigration, etc.
As Moscow is the leading suspect behind this act of sabotage against Europe’s energy infrastructure, the concern shared by many is that Russia has upped the ante on its asymmetric/hybrid warfare against the West.
Other pipelines, telecommunications, and other key critical infrastructure is now at risk. By doing this, Putin is putting pressure on the West to capitulate to his worldview of Russia’s greatness and predominance. Putin’s emerging hybrid and economic warfare goes beyond the war in Ukraine. It is designed to weaken and splinter the West. Putin knows that he cannot compete by being a “builder,” and he is thus raising by being the “spoiler.”
Putin’s Profile
All this goes to Putin’s psychology. Putin is a Russian nationalist, using right-wing and dictatorial means to achieve what he perceives to be Russia’s greatness and its place in human history. To accomplish this status, Putin shifts blame on others for his actions, and uses such blame to act in what he sees as being Russia’s interest. He is paranoid, isolated, arrogant, and blind to any possibility that his “strategies” may be misplaced or just wrong. The pipeline could be just another symptom of this “disease” from which Putin suffers.
It is part of the big picture, not an isolated incident and yet another Putin Folly…
Nuke Threat
Many are asking whether Putin would (actually) deliver on his former Prime Minister’s threat and use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. This is an existential threat for us all. Putin certainly seems to be building up to that kind of a move, for example, an invasion, mobilization, asymmetrical warfare.
What is next?
This certainly creates a dangerous situation, especially given Putin’s mindset, worldview, and disregard for logic, strategic planning, and wisdom. And yet, I would argue that even Putin would realize that such a move would not only undermine his power and authority, but perhaps that he himself could end up falling out of a window.
Putting Putin Back in the Bottle
Putin will not stop this behavior.
The best way to protect the civilized countries from Putin’s follies is to redefine the world order we created in 1945. This world order should isolate Russia as a malign actor, as a pariah state along the lines of North Korea and Iran.
We need to sever all economic inter-dependencies with Russia and show leadership by unifying like-minded nations of the international community in opposing Putin, and all other autocrats whose aim is to destabilize and alter the world order to their advantage. Some may note that this is a return to the Cold War. I would argue that standing up to autocrats such as Putin should not be considered as re-starting the Cold War but should be defined as defending what we and our allies hold dear.
But what I envision in the paragraph above is an ongoing state of crisis. In the end, there’s only one end game to how this crisis ends…Putin goes.
Kyiv and anyone else in Putin’s psychotic crosshairs will not sleep until he goes. Perhaps some of his lieutenants will see this and act.
When will they see the “light”?