Eye on China: Summaries of 16 Survey Polls Conducted by China Gray Zone Research & Intelligence
By N. MacDonnell Ulsch, Contributing Author/ September 26, 2023
Mr. Ulsch is Founder and Chief Analyst of Gray Zone Research & Intelligence—China Series, a research initiative focused on unraveling China’s technology driven strategy of global economic supremacy. He is a well known international advisor on cybersecurity, operational risk, technology and geopolitical risk. He periodically advises the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations on the China cyber and technology transfer threat. A former Senior Managing Director of PwC’s cybercrime practice, he has led incident investigations in 70 countries.
His research on the China threat covers the impact of legal and illegal technology transfer on China’s economic development strategy, US corporate regulatory risk pursuant to the China threat, China’s supply chain penetration, food processing and transport, technology investment, equity investment, Military-Civil Fusion as a cyber threat, and space-based revenue generating initiatives. More than 500 companies around the world read his LinkedIn China Polls, including every major bank in China.
His LinkedIn China Polls have received more than 200,000 views since June 2021 and he has more than 25,000 risk, audit, lawyers, and security followers on LinkedIn.
Mr. Ulsch is a strategy advisor to an East African presidential cabinet-in-exile on a counter-China Belt & Road Initiative, intended to increase the US presence and commitment to this transitioning nation-state.
Previously he was with the National Security Institute and under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act he served as a cyber threat advisor to the US Central Intelligence Agency. His work there involved developing perspective on key US cyber adversary capabilities and attacks on the US commercial sector and the Defense Industrial Base. He served on the US Secrecy Commission, and worked with a well known US Senator on information security issues. Mr. Ulsch advised a US presidential campaign on cybersecurity issues.
He is Guest Lecturer on Cyber Warfare at the US Military Academy at West Point. He has also lectured at numerous university graduate and law schools. One of his books, Cyber Threat!, is used in a number of universities and law schools. Mr. Ulsch is a Research Fellow in the Master’s in Cybersecurity program at Boston College, which he helped establish and where he remains on the advisory board.
Mr. Ulsch has spoken internationally at events and is the author of two books: Cyber Threat: How to Manage the Growing Risk of Cyber Attacks (John Wiley & Sons, 2014) and Threat! Managing Risk in a Hostile World (The IIA Research Foundation, 2008). For many years, Mr. Ulsch has been a Distinguished Fellow of the Ponemon Institute. He is a Director of the Near East Center for Strategic Engagement and Contributor to the inteliscopx.com program Homeland Security Off the Record. His videos are posted on YouTube and other social media venues.
Mr. Ulsch is an Independent Director of a financial services company, serving on the audit and risk committee, with particular focus on cybersecurity and privacy issues.
GRAY ZONE CHINA POLL NO. 82
06.01.2023
What to Make of China’s Mixed Messages
First, we have China reaching out to establish its role in what it calls a “new era”. This is the friendly, regionally focussed, helpful China that is your sustainable, dependable partner, regardless of whatever political differences and disputes may have existed in the past. It comes with a commitment to resolve differences peacefully in the future and achieve economic prosperity for all. That is the good China.
The bad China is the one aggressively encountering U.S. military aircraft in the international air space above the South China Sea. It is the China that claims a oneChina policy, two-system framework with regard to Taiwanese sovereignty. It is the China that illustrates its prowess with hypersonic missiles that in a war simulation exercise destroyed the U.S.S. Gerald Ford aircraft carrier and its battle fleet.
The bad China imprisons the Uyghurs and restricts media freedom in Hong Kong, while clamping down on cybersecurity freedoms and privacy. It engages in global corporate intellectual property theft in an effort to transfer critical technologies and dominate markets.
This is the environment in which CEOs from around the world recently visited China, testing the waters of China as an accepting market, and in response to the good China’s welcoming of corporate interests, commitment, and investment.
QUESTION: China is courting businesses for investment in China. Given the politically charged atmosphere, is foreign investment into China sound?
YES 6%
NO 94%
IMPRESSIONS: 2,023
GRAY ZONE CHINA POLL 81
05.12.2023
Targeting China Outbound Investment
U.S. lawmakers are urging President Joe Biden to issue an Executive Order further restricting outbound investments in China-controlled entities, contrary to what some investment firms in the U.S. are advising. The intent of any prospective Executive Order would be to diversify and secure U.S. and allied interests in the global supply chain, increase national security, and reinforce fair economic competition practices, while protecting U.S. and allied intellectual property integrity.
QUESTION: Do you favor President Biden issuing an Executive Order intended to further restrict outbound China investment?
YES 66%
NO 34%
IMPRESSIONS: 3,347
GRAY ZONE CHINA POLL NO. 80
05.03.2023
China-U.S. Cooperation in Smart Cities
Based on advanced intelligence collection, monitoring and surveillance systems, and using AI-enabled predictive algorithms, China has demonstrated its efficiency and effectiveness in repressing its Uyghur population through massive data manipulation. The Ministry of Public Security–through its federal police force and Its predictive policing program–has placed some 1.3 million Uyghurs into detention camps. But China is now exporting these systems to smart city developments around the world, to more than a hundred countries so far. The U.S. and other governments are concerned about smart-city backdoors built into the networks largely supplied by ZTE and Huawei, State-Owned Enterprises known to violate data privacy and information integrity.
Still, some U.S. and other countries are assisting in China’s smart-city development efforts. One specific area is in people-moving mechanisms, which are intelligent systems. If there is reasonable concern about China’s strategic proliferation of its agenda of global economic superiority, coupled with its massive militarization program, from its terrestrial assets and into space, then should we be looking more carefully at U.S.-China joint ventures and restricting them if it is not in the best interest of the U.S. and our allies? These joint ventures are expansive, not only in people-moving systems but in food and other industries, as well.
QUESTION: Should Capitol Hill and the White House more aggressively intervene in strategic joint ventures with the Chinese Communist Party?
YES. Legislation needed. 69%
NO. Let the market decide. 31%
IMPRESSIONS: 2,439
GRAY ZONE CHINA POLL NO. 80
04.24.2023
China Prepares for Satellite Wars
As some U.S. investment firms encourage more investment in China equities, China’s military-infused technology research and development infrastructure is developing powerful cyber weapons to use against U.S. and allied satellites, according to the publication “LifeZette”and other sources. Using sophisticated malware and lasers, satellites providing critical communications, navigation and intelligence collection can be disabled. In fact, it has already happened. In 2007 China used malware to disrupt communications between a U.S. satellite and a military ground station. The satellite was out of operation for several weeks. China’s pattern of expanded and aggressive militarization, from its terrestrial assets to low-earth orbit and into geostationary orbit, including all domestically developed technology, should be a wake-up call about China’s space-based capability and intent.
QUESTION: As a matter of governance, does your organization address the risk of China disabling satellite communications and its business impact?
YES 19%
NO 81%
IMPRESSIONS: 3,122
GRAY ZONE CHINA POLL NO. 79
04.12.2023
China, France and Nuclear Energy: Geopolitical Upset, But No Surprise
Both China and France are heavily vested in nuclear energy. Even many of the components of French reactors are manufactured in China, and some of China reactors are based on a French design. France currently gets 70% of its electricity from nuclear power. As the French saying goes, “no oil, no gas, no coal, no choice.” France’s nuclear power exports provide 15% of Europe’s total power. France decided on nuclear energy for electricity in 1973 during the OPEC oil fiasco. And now France has signed a major cooperation agreement with two Chinese nuclear energy manufacturers. Two-thirds of France’s population supports nuclear energy. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the energy crisis in Europe are creating strategic opportunities for China and geopolitical and economic concern for the U.S. and allies. There is increasing concern over dual-use nuclear energy and weapons development.
QUESTION: Does the China-France nuclear dual-use energy agreement concern you with regard to the potential drift of France as a Western ally?
YES 53%
NO 47%
IMPRESSIONS: 3,109
GRAY ZONE CHINA POLL NO. 78
03.21.2023
Russia’s Ukraine Invasion–What did China Know and When Did it Know it?
Less than three weeks before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, on February 24, 2022, China and Russia were in discussions regarding a China-Russia cooperation agreement. Documents between the two nations were signed. The agreements included cooperation in commerce and trade, agriculture and food, as well as technology innovation and transfer. The agreement forges a union between China and Russia for the future, a future in which China will clearly be the dominant factor in the relationship. This is consistent with China’s many other cooperation agreements around the world.
QUESTION: Did China know about Russia’s plan to invade Ukraine in advance of the invasion?
YES 85%
NO 15%
IMPRESSIONS: 4,877
GRAY ZONE CHINA POLL NO. 77
03.15.2023
China’s Military Escalation
Now in an unprecedented third term, President Xi Xinping stated that he intends to “build the People’s Liberation Army into a great wall of steel that effectively safeguards national sovereignty, security, and development interests.” Xi’s foreign minister, Qin Gang, warned that if the United States doesn’t “hit the brakes,” China and the U.S. will be on a collision course resulting in “conflict and confrontation.” These statements follow concerning actions, notably China’s military-civil fusion program, which places the military at the heart of all technology initiatives that Xi himself is overseeing. China’s militarization strategy extends from earth, to low earth orbit and into geostationary orbit. Developing nations–as referenced in Xi’s speech– are at the core of China’s geopolitical, economic, and military strategy, as is Taiwan. China is increasing its defense budget by 7.2% this year. In 2022, China spent 1.7% of its GDP on defense. In comparison, the United States spent 3.3% of GDP on defense.
QUESTION: Do you believe it likely that we could be in a hot, military war with China within five years, with Taiwan’s sovereignty a likely trigger?
YES 58%
NO 42%
IMPRESSIONS: 5,775
GRAY ZONE CHINA POLL
NO. 76 03.06.2023
China, Russia, the U.S.: ConflIct at the Edge of War
The uneasiness of conflict is settling in, the war in Ukraine now more than a year old, the supply chain still fractured, and Russia and China in alignment to some degree. War is hard to predict. But there are those who believe that in the event of a war, the following scenario is feasible. It will start with Ukraine and the Russian invasion. The U.S. supplies sophisticated and costly weaponry to Ukraine, China supplies Russia with the same. Russia launches a first strike nuclear salvo against either a NATO nation or even the U.S. China does not engage. It is on the sidelines of wartime history. In its aftermath, Russia is devastated.
The U.S. and NATO are damaged. China neither wins nor loses militarily while the other nations have engaged in a costly war. China’s military is intact. Its economic program of investment in developing nations is uninterrupted. Its quest for global economic supremacy moves forward. It has successfully used Russia to weaken the state of U.S. and NATO defeNse and national security and economic outlook.
QUESTION: Does this scenario concern you?
YES 56%
NO 44%
IMPRESSIONS: 3,437
GRAY ZONE CHINA POLL NO. 75
02.18.2023
China Balloon Games
While the White House and the Intelligence Community are uncertain about the frequency and origination of at least some of the “balloons” penetrating U.S. air space, three issues must be examined: 1. Which intelligence collecting devices were from China or other adversaries? 2. What intelligence was collected and was that intelligence important to U.S. national security? 3. How many such devices have we not detected?
QUESTION: How concerned are you that China is stepping up low-level aerial surveillance and intelligence collection activities against the U.S.?
VERY CONCERNED 60%
NOT CONCERNED 40%
IMPRESSIONS: 5,336
GRAY ZONE CHINA POLL NO. 74
01.31.2023
China and the NFL
The National Football League is expanding its overseas marketing program, and China is on the list. This translates into a huge financial opportunity for participating nations and for the NFL. But there are concerns over corruption, human rights, and so on. There are also national security issues associated with China.
QUESTION: Is a China NFL program a good idea or does it send the wrong message about U.S. and allied values?
GOOD IDEA 8%
SENDS WRONG MESSAGE 92%
IMPRESSIONS: 3,301
GRAY ZONE CHINA POLL NO. 73
01.25.2023
China’s Renewable Energy Crisis
From the Tibetan Mountains to the East China Sea, some 3,915 miles (6,300 km), the Yangtze River provides water to some 400 million Chinese people. The Yangtze River Delta holds 10% of the population and 20% of China’s GDP. It is home to the Three Gorges Dam, the world’s largest hydroelectric power station. It produced more than 103.6 billion kWh in 2021. This power is critical for electricity generation from west to east.
But there is a problem. The Yangtze is at its lowest water level since 1865. It’s 20 feet lower than the average depth. Rainfall in the Yangtze basin is 45% lower than usual. Over the last 1,000 years there have been 16 major droughts, with one starting in the summer of 2022. So there’s a major drought every 60 years or so. This impacts virtually all of China, from agriculture to manufacturing, and shipping.
As the world’s largest producer and user of energy, China is under pressure to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and replace these traditional fuels with renewable forms of power generation.
QUESTION: Will future droughts slow China’s use of green hydroelectric power and increase its reliance on coal, Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and oil?
YES 62%
NO 38%
IMPRESSIONS: 2,595
GRAY ZONE CHINA POLL NO. 72
01.13.2023
A New China-Philippines Dynamic?
The relationship between China and the Philippines has been fraught with conflict. But now it seems that a new approach to”friendship” is forming. From war between the two countries in 1951 (United Nations intervention), to China’s quest for sovereignty over the Spratly Islands in the Western Philippines Sea, both countries see advantages in cooperation. In fact, Li Zhanshu, China’s Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, met recently in Beijing with the visiting president of the Philippines, Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr. Zhanshu and Marcos agreed to strengthen the relationship between the two countries to “a strategic level.”
The agenda: deepen cooperation between China and the Philippines, support each other on issues concerning conflicts, and as was reported in the Chinese media, “draw on each other’s strength.” The leaders also stated the intent to ”handle differences through friendly consultation,” and press for “greater development of their relations in the new era.” Li said that China “is willing to strengthen exchanges and cooperation with the parliament of the Philippines. Marcos then said that “the Philippines is ready to work with China to elevate bilateral cooperation to a strategic level and tackle common challenges.” Li clearly stated the intent of China’s state-owned enterprises to invest in the Philippines.
This will increase China’s opportunity to sell more electronics, nuclear reactors, machinery, minerals and fuel to the Philippines, as well as provide smart-city development, thereby increasing intrusive surveillance and monitoring activity. But of particular interest is Philcomsat Holdings Corporation, where Marcos was the former Chairman of the Board. This represents an expansion of China’s e-commerce initiative into its regional economic zone, as well as an example of China’s new “friendly neighbor” strategy.
QUESTION: Does this escalation of strategic intent patterning increase U.S. and allied economic, national security, and corporate board concerns?
YES 67%
NO 33%
IMPRESSIONS: 2,514
GRAY ZONE CHINA POLL NO. 71
01.02.2023
Defining a Troubling China in 2022
Last year was a challenge for China and the Chinese Communist Party, a lot of moving pieces that played a critical role in the evolution of China’s aggressive strategic growth and power agenda. Aside from the political and economic dynamics, as well as domestic tranquility disruptions, two defining issues rise to the surface as determinants of China’s future.
The first is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia forced China’s hand in this matter, with China playing a delicate balance between supporting its China-Russia cooperation agreement and its commitment to defend Ukraine through its nuclear defense agreement with Ukraine, while carefully maneuvering to avoid damaging economic conflict with the West over Russia’s aggressive behavior. And then there were the multiple Chinese aircraft penetrations of the Taiwan air defense identification zone in the Taiwan Strait, the last one just after Christmas 2022, reaffirming China’s position of the one-China policy, which is gaining momentum around the world.
QUESTION: As industry professionals, which issue do you believe is more indicative of China’s strategic intent and Western concern?
A. Taiwan air space intrusions 61%
B. Russia invasion of Ukraine 39%
IMPRESSIONS: 4,042
GRAY ZONE CHINA POLL NO. 70
12.29.2022
Opportunities Inside China: Participating?
A Chinese news publication states that President Xi Jinping is “a firm advocate of global cooperation and the open economy.” China is pursuing what Xi is calling “high quality development” as part of its openness. Further, he said that a prosperous China will create much more opportunity for the world. “China will open its doors even wider,” Xi said. Opening the China economy, allowing for market expansion, will undoubtedly create financial opportunities for many. But…
QUESTION: Will developed economies turn their backs on an open China, fearing a China intent on geopolitical, economic and military superiority?
YES 46%
NO 54%
IMPRESSIONS: 3,042
GRAY ZONE CHINA POLL NO. 69
12.13.2022
China’s Power of Persuasion
I met recently with a group of European diplomats on the subject of China’s influence over Russia, specifically with regard to Ukraine. In September 2022, Ukraine proclaimed that China is not an ally of Ukraine. Yet, in December 2013, China and Ukraine signed a bilateral treaty affirming that China will provide Ukraine with nuclear security guarantees of support if Ukraine comes under nuclear threat. China’s foreign minister endorses Russia’s “no nuclear” policy pursuant to Ukraine. Clearly, though, earlier this year, Vladimir Putin seemed to suggest that a tactical nuclear weapon deployed in Ukraine was a distinct possibility.
QUESTION: Did China convince Russia not to escalate the war due to China’s nuclear protection agreement with Ukraine, complicating China’s position?
YES 54%
NO 46%
IMPRESSIONS: 3,900
GRAY ZONE CHINA POLL NO. 68
11.29.2022
A Robust Economic Recovery for China?
According to the Governor of the People’s Bank of China, Yi Gang: China’s GDP increased year-over-year in the third quarter by 3.9%. Addressing the Annual Conference of Financial Street Forum 2022, he said:
“Measured by economic performance, China’s macroeconomic policy has proven to be well-calibrated. We have kept the economy stable, preserved price stability at home despite surging inflationary pressure worldwide, and maintained a fine balance between internal and external equilibrium… We have leveraged structural monetary policy tools to enhance the financial support for agriculture, small and medium enterprises(SMEs), the private companies and other structural weak links on the supply side. As a result, finance has now become more accessible, available and affordable.”
QUESTION: Do you believe China is moving toward a robust economic recovery, further enabling its geopolitical and economic expansionist agenda?
YES 44%
NO 56%
IMPRESSIONS: 5,011
GRAY ZONE CHINA POLL NO. 67
11.14.2022
Joint Chinese and Russian Military Exercises
China has stepped up its threatening posture in military exercises aimed at intimidating Taiwan’s defense forces. This comes on the heel of joint China-Russia military exercises held in Russia. These military exercises also included Belarus, Mongolia, and Tajikistan. China maintains that the joint war exercises are “unrelated to the current international and regional situation,” according to the Chinese Minister of Defense, a reference to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. China pursued a low-key public image regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, perhaps in part because of China’s nuclear protection agreement with Ukraine and Russia’s poor performance. That agreement requires China to come to Ukraine’s defense in the event of a nuclear threat, despite its alliance with Russia.
QUESTION: Do you believe the China-Russia relationship will strengthen, and this escalates the potential for global military conflict over Taiwan?
YES 65%
NO 35%
IMPRESSIONS: 4,869
GRAY ZONE CHINA POLL NO. 66
11.02.2022
China and U.S. Midterm Elections
On November 8, 2022, midterm elections are going to be held in the United States. Most everyone agrees this is a pivotal election. Inflation, jobs, energy costs in particular, the southern border security between Mexico and the U.S., and a significant increase in U.S. domestic crime are but a few of the issues. But what is the Chinese Communist Party thinking about the upcoming election?
QUESTION: Which of the two major U.S. political parties will the Chinese Communist Party want to win the midterm election on November 11th?
39% REPUBLICAN
61% DEMOCRAT
IMPRESSIONS: 7,885