CIA’s Carver Methodology: Size Up Your Adversaries & Their Intentions
By Luke Bencie, Contributing Author & Host / December 6, 2024
Luke Bencie is the Managing Director for Security Management International, LLC. He has consulted for the US Department of State, US Department of Defense, Fortune 500 companies, and foreign governments, specializing in strategic and security management assessments, counterintelligence, and due-diligence investigations. Bencie has authored "Among Enemies: Counter-Espionage for the Business Traveler" and "Global Security Consulting: How to Build a Thriving International Practice."
With experience in over 100 countries, Bencie has trained thousands from police, military, and intelligence services on topics such as espionage, border security, and terrorism. Prior to SMI, he was a Senior Security Consultant for Raytheon, focusing on emerging markets, and served on the US Department of State’s Foreign Emergency Support Team. He holds graduate degrees in National Security Studies and an MBA, and has further education from institutions like Wharton and the FBI’s National Training Academy.
Human Intelligence and Tradecraft
In the 2001 espionage thriller, Spy Game, there is a classic scene where a veteran CIA case officer (played by Robert Redford) is training a young recruit (played by Brad Pitt) in the timeless techniques of human intelligence (HUMINT) and tradecraft. Tradecraft is a term that has been around for decades and refers to the practice, method, and technologies used in modern espionage. It includes skills such as elicitation, casing, “dead drops,” surveillance detection, and recruitment.
In the scene, the crusty spy tells the inexperienced trainee, “Every room is a snapshot. You need to ask what’s wrong with this picture. You need to see it, assess it, and dismiss most of it without thinking. It’s just like breathing.”
Situational Awareness
The dialogue is a great summation of what it means to think like a spy. It is essentially situational awareness, where the intelligence officer is attuned to the baselines and anomalies around him or her, while staying keen to danger and opportunity. Opportunity, in this case, means identifying potential strangers as targets of opportunity.
Espionage Recruitment
One of the most effective tools used by spies over the past fifty years to assess any situation has been the CIA’s CARVER Target Analysis and Vulnerability Assessment Methodology. It has been a useful companion for which intel people have relied upon it to help read any room or determine which person might be a good candidate for espionage recruitment.
Human Exploitation
Developed during World War II, CARVER (then one letter shorter and known as CARVE) was originally used by analysts to determine where bomber pilots could most effectively drop their munitions on enemy targets. During the early 1970’s, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) repackaged CARVE into CARVER as a means for predicting where terrorists might strike against American targets overseas. However, case officers assigned to identify potential foreign assets for recruitment quickly found it equally useful for human exploitation.
An Acronym
To clarify, CARVER is an acronym, which when used to assess people, stands for:
Criticality – How badly do I need the information that this person has?
Accessibility – Does this person have access to what I need?
Recoverability – If the relationship fell out, could I safely recover?
Vulnerability – What is this person’s level of susceptibility?
Effect – What would be the repercussions of recruiting this person?
Recognizability – Is it obvious that this person either has secrets or is vulnerable?
Calculated Scores
To use CARVER — whether you’re assessing a room, a facility, or a person — you assign scores from 1 to 5 (with 5 being “most essential,” “most likely,” and so on) for each of the six criteria above. The sum of the six scores is the total score for whatever/whomever you’re assessing. Once you’ve calculated the total scores for various assets, you can compare them. For example, you could use CARVER to compare two vulnerable people within an organization to determine which is more susceptible to recruitment for espionage. Whichever has the higher score is probably where you would want to divert resources and plan your recruitment plan of attack (i.e., begin your recruitment cycle).
Identify, Categorize, Prioritize
The important thing to remember is that this exercise is conducted to identify, categorize, and prioritize high-risk assets (people) and situations; to assess vulnerabilities; and to make smarter decisions about risk management.
Here’s an example. Let’s say that an intelligence officer was at a cocktail party and started a conversation with a stranger from a foreign country. After making small talk, the discussion turned toward what each man did for a living. The intel officer claimed to be nothing more than a boring civil servant, while the stranger was a nuclear engineer who designed weapons for a Chinese defense firm (believe me, it’s never that easy!).
The intelligence officer would then engage in the art of elicitation. Elicitation can be defined as a technique used to delicately extract information from an unsuspecting individual, so the intent of the conversation is not revealed. Once the intel officer establishes rapport with his/her target, elicitation constructs a dialogue that eases someone into volunteering information.
Subtle Questions
Using the CARVER matrix, the intel man would ask a serious of subtle questions related to the acronym C-A-R-V-E-R. “Access” is typically the most valuable of the six criteria. As such, the case officer would try to determine what potential “secrets” the nuclear engineer may have access to and then establish an excuse for a follow-up meeting. Over time, and numerous follow up engagements with the engineer, the notional CARVER scores may fluctuate, giving the intel officer a clearer picture of his target and avenues of approach.
Streamlined Process
“Vulnerability” will help the intel officer determine how the engineer might be susceptible to espionage. This could be in the form of money (perhaps he has a child that needs an expensive operation), sharing ideological beliefs (the engineer doesn’t stand with his government’s abuse of power), or playing off the engineer’s ego or sense of excitement (some people just find spying sexy). The point is everyone has their “hot buttons” - you just must identify the right ones to press as an intelligence officer. That is what the CARVER Methodology provides you, a streamlined process for reading people.
The “Effect” of recruiting a successful asset (an intel officer’s source for information) can be used to aid an investigation, establish a pattern-of-life, anticipate the actions of others, as well as assist with overall strategic decision-making. In most cases, “effect” will be how success/failure or risk/gain is measured.
Utilizing Principles
In a pivotal scene from Spy Game, Brad Pitt’s idealistic (almost wet-behind-the-ears) character tells Robert Redford, “You can’t just use these people like they’re baseball cards. This is not a game!” To which Redford responds, “Oh, yes, it is… and it’s not one you want to lose.”
Utilizing the principles of the CARVER Methodology might just give you a better sense of how to think like a spy, as well as prevent yourself from being traded like a baseball card.