China Versus Russia: Only One is the Real Threat
By Tom Rakusan, Contributing Author/ August 15, 2022
Mr. Rakusan recently retired from the Federal Government after 39 years with various elements of the U.S. national security community. Mr. Rakusan’s focus has been on Eastern and Western Europe, the former Soviet states, and across the Middle East. He has served in a multitude of locations in these regions, as well as in Washington, working these issues in the national security community within various national security settings over several Administrations.
Mr. Rakusan has also led several large organizations. In these and other senior national security leadership positions, Mr. Rakusan led innovation and created multi-disciplinary teams to tackle the Nation’s most pressing national security challenges.
Mr. Rakusan is currently employed with a U.S. private equity firm, focusing on investments in companies developing tools needed by the U.S. national security community.
Russia and China, Different Threats
The United States and its western allies are facing a dual-track, short AND long-term threat to our collective security. Those threatening our short- and long-term security and viability as the civilized world order are obvious.
In the short-term, the threat is Russia and in the long-term, the challenge is China.
Both China and Russia plan to dominate the global order built by the West since 1945. China has the capability to do this via its economy, technological base, its emerging military capacity, and through its covert and overt influence, such as building tools deployed via its intelligence and diplomatic channels.
What Russia Lacks
Russia, on the other hand, is simply incapable of controlling the global order.
It has no economy to speak of, and its technology is either stolen from the West or indigenously developed for the military and intelligence organs. Therefore, Russia can only hope to ensure the West no longer controls the world order. But Russia cannot do this on its own. Russia has to resort to “violence,” i.e., invasions, assassinations, overt and covert influence, election meddling, and all kinds of other forms of interference in other countries’ internal matters.
This makes Russia the immediate threat as we see daily in Ukraine, as we have seen in 2016 regarding the U.S. elections, and as we occasionally see with targeted killings and resultant PNGs of Russian intelligence officers. China poses THE threat regarding its policies of “economic imperialism” designed to exert global influence and control, called the Belt and Road Initiative.
Enter Iran
These are general observations, ones that we need to “unpack” and examine as they become tangible on the global battlefields where China and Russia are both waging their fight. In China’s case it is for the domination of the world order, and in Russia’s case, it is for disrupting western interests.
I have recently addressed this battle for influence in South Asia and in Afghanistan, specifically – “China, Russia, and Iran: The Great Game Continues (Differently)”. But this is a global battlefield.
Putin just visited Iran to forge an alliance with Tehran, and the Iranian regime agreed to share with Russia its UAV technology.
Doctor Evil Meets Frankenstein
Despite Putin’s self-pronounced military might, Russia needs Iran’s experience in terrorism to deploy UAVs designed for such operations.
While Moscow and Tehran have historical differences, they share one thing: they both are sponsors and even architects of terrorism. And they have the West as its common foe, while both are trying to remain friendly in China. While the Moscow-Tehran “alliance” has benefits for both countries at this point in time, Putin’s outreach does not bode well for his self-proclaimed status as a world power. Putin had to resort to a UAV deal with Iran, after all.
The Iran “file” in this context actually saddens me. The Persian history, culture, and social development prior to the current regime are to be admired and respected. The current regime wrongfully and purposefully equated the Shah’s injustices with western influence, and used this “package” to rule the country ruthlessly since 1979.
The regime uses two levers of power: one is coercion by way of very effective and ruthless security structures, and the second is self-proclaimed religious authority by interpreting the Arabic-language Koran to the masses, all to maintain the regime’s influence. In this endeavor, they have become a pariah state, a pariah who can only ally itself with other pariahs such as Russia.
The Fight for Africa
Africa has been a geopolitical battleground since the end of World War II, and that battle for influence and resources is on the rise yet again. Both China and Russia are heavily “invested” in Africa. The Chinese, in reality, actually invest in Africa. The Russians, on the other hand, “invest” via Putin’s covert army called the Wagner Group run by Yevgeniy Prigozhin. Both rely on corruption, but the Chinese use funds to buy into key African exports, while the Russians use violence and bribes.
In any event, both countries are heavily involved on the Continent for their own benefit and at the West’s expense.
Setting Up Shop in Syria
The Russians continue to maintain a military and political influence presence in Syria, where they arrived in 2013, regrettably at the invitation of the U.S. Administration in office at the time. The United States naively believed that having the Russians at the table to resolve Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons against his people was a good thing for the global community. The Russians, not unexpectedly, used Washington’s naivete to set up “shop” in Syria, its first foothold in the Middle East since being ousted from Egypt by Anwar Sadat in 1973.
Saudi Arabia Up for Grabs
The battle for Saudi Arabia is on in full form. The Russians and Saudis have colluded on the issue of oil production, where both benefit from Moscow’s creation of the crisis in Ukraine. But, in the Saudi case, the Riyadh regime and its vast resources and influence have played this game very well. Playing Moscow, Beijing, and Washington off each other, the Saudis have been able to leverage all they could for their own benefit in terms of all the forms of geopolitical influence, including trade, economic growth, and political sway.
President Biden’s recent visit to Riyadh to meet with Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman and the King of Saudi Arabia, despite many headlines to the contrary, was productive for the United States in this three-way geopolitical fist-fight. The United States Government agreed on cooperation on a number of issues with the Kingdom. This should help not only the flow of Saudi oil to the global markets, but also these agreements should bring Washington and Riyadh closer together for western benefit and at the expense of Moscow and Beijing.
Europe as a Gray Zone Hotspot
Europe is a battlefield, aside from the kinetic war in Ukraine.
The Russians have been very active in sowing disunity and unrest in Europe for years, most intensely since Putin’s 2007 speech at the Munich Security Conference. Putin has deployed weapons of mass destruction in Europe (Skripal), he has provided oxygen to the flames of social and political disunity on the Continent, and he has tried to divide the United States from its European allies. While he was successful in the early stages of this master plan, he failed by going too far in Ukraine. What Vladimir “Vova” Putin managed to do was to unify the Europeans and solidify their ties to Washington in one move, the invasion of Ukraine. Putin, not the “strategic genius” as many academics labeled him, in reality made Europeans feel as westerners and allies of the United States. Well done, Vladimir.
The Chinese have been active in Europe as well, but their tools of “warfare” have been trade, investment, and technology. Huawei, ZTE and other Chinese actors have put down anchors on the European continent in ways that generate income for Beijing and provide the Chinese a seat at the European table regarding investment. Also, Beijing has been able to facilitate access into the European infrastructure as, I would venture, we have never seen before. The Europeans finally woke up to this reality a few years ago, and one by one, the European capitals started restricting Chinese access to European markets.
Recapping What All This Means
Chinese plans to dominate the global order have been more effective than Moscow’s because, as noted above, China uses a genuine economy and technology base to exert its influence. The Russians have been less successful as their TACTICS, not strategy, of influence are transparent and seen by various audiences for what they are , and that is violence. This is mostly the case in Europe, but even in the Third World, Russians are not accepted as readily because they bring less to the table.
A Call for Leadership
As for the solution, there are two words: western leadership. We in the West have been accepting of Moscow’s and Beijing’s aggressive behavior. Regarding China, many western governments and companies unfortunately welcomed and still today welcome Chinese investment with open arms. As for the Russian flavor of aggression, that train left the station with the invasion of Ukraine when Putin, in his barely tactical mindset, overplayed his hand by thinking that he had sown sufficient disunity to get away with murder.
If the West is to counter Chinese and Russian influence and overcome their desires to either take over or deny the West the leadership of the world order, we must show leadership.
Leadership requires an objective worldview of the true nature of the rather evil regimes in Beijing and in Moscow. More importantly, true leadership requires courage by political leaders to stand for the well-being of their countries and of the community of nations, often at the expense of short-term and personally beneficial approaches to challenges.
But leadership is not limited to states and their governments.
Global Company Leaders Wanted
Leadership also must exist among private sector companies, which need to factor the geopolitical threats posed by Beijing and Moscow into their activities and theses. C-suites must look beyond the balance sheets when developing business plans and corporate strategies. Or even better, incorporate geopolitical realities into their respective postures in order to avoid losing revenue by not dealing with the likes of Russia and China.
And, on this issue, one cautionary tale.
The companies that had to abandon significant investments in Russia due to the Russian regime demonstrating its essential violent nature should be a cautionary tale for companies who are much more exposed in China.
In the end, if western leadership is robust, courageous, and genuine, it will easily defeat China’s global expansionism conducted for political prowess, and it will easily demolish Russia’s murderous tactics designed to deny the West its continuing role.