China, Russia, and Iran: The Great Game Continues (Differently)
By Tom Rakusan, Contributing Author/ July 4, 2022
Mr. Rakusan recently retired from the Federal Government after 39 years with various elements of the U.S. national security community. Mr. Rakusan’s focus has been on Eastern and Western Europe, the former Soviet states, and across the Middle East. He has served in a multitude of locations in these regions, as well as in Washington, working these issues in the national security community within various national security settings over several Administrations.
Mr. Rakusan has also led several large organizations. In these and other senior national security leadership positions, Mr. Rakusan led innovation and created multi-disciplinary teams to tackle the Nation’s most pressing national security challenges.
Mr. Rakusan is currently employed with a U.S. private equity firm, focusing on investments in companies developing tools needed by the U.S. national security community.
Afghanistan and Geopolitics
Now that the United States and its allies have departed Afghanistan, and Russia subsequently invaded Ukraine, while China is rattling sabers over and around Taiwan, it may be useful to take a look at the impact of the departure from Afghanistan in a global and regional geopolitical context.
Our departure from Afghanistan, and the way it was handled or mishandled depending on one’s opinion, left a reputational issue for the United States with its allies and foes alike.
Questioning American Resolve
Following the departure events in Kabul, America’s allies questioned its resolve, or the resolve of this Administration, while Washington’s adversaries likely saw the departure as a sign of things to come, vis-à-vis Ukraine (Russia) and Taiwan (China). Before Ukraine erupted, we were down in terms of our credibility among our allies, and it likely gave our foes the perception of greater latitude between the U.S. and its resolve.
Ukraine Enters the Scene
Then came Ukraine, where Putin decided to move based on his miscalculation of America’s and its allies’ resolve, based on Putin’s need to be seen as a superpower, and his ill-conceived view of historical claims to Kievan Rus. What no one anticipated – allies and foes alike – is that this administration would act in Ukraine on the basis of principle. While the administration continues to worry about escalation, it acted out of disgust over Putin’s aggression and inhumane violence against a small country having been wronged.
Not only that, but the administration managed to unify America’s allies, who were ready to act in any case out of fear of being Putin’s victims as well.
I am sure that Putin did not expect this. This does not mean that we “won.” Our foes may now think twice before acting, but their arrogance and hegemonic worldview will never stop their aggressive posture to take over the global order (China), or to at least try to assure the West no longer controls it (Russia).
Gaining Back U.S. Credibility
But, in terms of the damage and embarrassment caused by the Afghan withdrawal and the modus operandi involved, the United States has overcome the perception of its lack of resolve.
So, the first question we could ask ourselves is whether the above hypothesis is in fact correct. I hope it is. If it is accurate, we need to ask ourselves how long we can live off our good reputation post-Ukraine. The answer to that question will drive Moscow’s and Beijing’s resolve regarding other regional and even global challenges these two miscreant regimes fathom.
The Great Game Now
The second issue in the context of the withdrawal from Afghanistan is that of the Great Game replaying in South and Central Asia and its global implications.
China (most certainly) and Russia (somewhat likely as Xi’s junior partner) will compete for influence in that region. China’s Belt and Road Initiative as a tool of global influence, if not domination, and Russia’s thuggery, will drive them. Despite America regaining its reputation, the Russians and Chinese will move ahead.
The second question, then, is what will the influence game in this region look like in the near-term, and what are its implications for the global balance of influence (not power).
The Great Game of the 19th Century
The Great Game of the 19th century (even of the late 20th century) is an important template. Iran, Turkey, China, Russia, the West, as well as the Afghan warlords, are vying for influence and resources. China is all in and has the BRI. Russia will claim a need for raw materials and will cite its historical claims in Central Asia and in Afghanistan. Iran will not be left out and will ride the Chinese and Russian “magic carpets” for regional hegemony, while competing with Moscow and Beijing. The Turks will likely limit their activities to Central Asia and the Turkic heritage. And the West – well, I am concerned that we are locked out given the unplanned and controversial decision to withdraw from Afghanistan.
Global Order
The implications for the global order do exist. Chinese progress in Afghanistan will bolster its BRI. Russia can regain some of its control in Eurasia after having lost its credibility in Ukraine, and Iran will gain a foothold. All this will impact how these entities engage us, and how adventurous they will be on the global stage, as in Taiwan, etc.