I Need a Vacation: But What Now…
By Brett Trusko, Contributing Author/ March 15, 2025
Dr. Brett Trusko, PhD, MBA, is a distinguished academic and industry expert with a career that spans healthcare, technology, and business management. He has held various prestigious positions, including Assistant Professor of Medicine at the Center for Translational and Bioinformatics at Mount Sinai in New York, and a key figure at The Mayo Clinic. Dr. Trusko is known for his collaboration with the late Russell Coile on the "Healthcare 2020" series, and he has authored several influential books, such as "Improving Healthcare Quality and Cost with Six Sigma." He has served as a founding member and Board Director of the United States Healthcare Information Technology Standards Panel, a member of the ISO TC 215, and a Fellow in both the Healthcare Financial Management Association and the Health Information Management Systems Society.
In addition to his academic and professional pursuits, Dr. Trusko is the President and CEO of the International Association of Innovation Professionals (IAOIP) and the Editor-in-Chief of the International Journal of Innovation Science. He continues to consult globally, working with several countries on healthcare improvement strategies. Dr. Trusko's dedication to advancing healthcare and informatics through education and practical application has made him a respected figure in his field. His leadership roles and contributions to healthcare quality and innovation have cemented his reputation as a thought leader.
Spring Is Here and So Is…
Spring is here, and it’s time to start dreaming about that much-needed summer vacation. Imagine yourself on a sun-drenched beach, the sound of gentle waves lapping at the shore, a cold drink in your hand. Bliss, right?
Take a deep breath, soak it all in… and now, let’s get back to reality.
Because much like your vacation plans, companies and their stakeholders are wading through an environment of increasing uncertainties, including more unanticipated disruptions.
At the beginning of the year, everything looked promising, and business was booming, the stock market was up, and optimism was in the air. It was like planning the perfect beach getaway. But suddenly, the hotel called: “We might have your reservation, but we’re not entirely sure. Also, the pool and restaurant might be closed, the beach has a bacteria problem so you probably can’t use it, and just to make things more interesting, there’s a transportation strike, so good luck getting here.”
What Now…
Do you keep your plans and hope for the best, or do you cancel and cut your losses?
This is exactly what’s happening with the economy. Just as your dream vacation has turned into a logistical nightmare, businesses must now navigate a world of uncertainty. And if you think disruptions in one part of the world won’t affect you, think again. Economies of today are so intertwined that a crisis on the other side of the world can have a profound effect on where you are.
Factors Causing Global Instability
Political instability leads to economic chaos, shaking investor confidence and making customers hesitant to spend. Imagine booking a trip to a country that suddenly experiences a government coup. Even if the new leaders are perfectly nice people, are you really going to risk it?
It’s likely that what you will do is temporarily cancel your plans and wait to see how things turn out. This is what happens when people sell their positions in the stock market and leave the money “on the sidelines”.
Stability is king with markets and today is clearly unstable.
Markets and Fear
When the market takes a nosedive, investors don’t throw money around—they go into survival mode. Ever heard a financial advisor say, “Move to a defensive position”? That’s code for: Buckle up, things are about to get bumpy. In extreme cases, people start stuffing cash under their mattresses. And in vacation terms, that means canceling your trip and picking a safer, more predictable option—like staying home.
Businesses, like sports, rely on clear rules. Imagine playing a game where the referee keeps changing the rules mid-match to favor the opposing team. Sound frustrating? That’s what it’s like trying to make strategic decisions when laws and regulations are constantly shifting. Anyone who has had a toddler in their home knows what it’s like to play a game of checkers when the child keeps inventing new rules to benefit themselves.
Waiting for Stability
Companies that can’t predict what’s coming tend to sit on the sidelines.
Going back to that resort you booked. The restaurant was supposed to be open, but there’s a transportation strike, and food deliveries are stuck. Maybe the issue is political unrest, or a sudden trade restriction no one saw coming. Either way, the hotel can’t guarantee you’ll be fed, and now guests are canceling left and right. Businesses operate the same way—if supply chains become unreliable, confidence collapses.
Afterall, if a customer wants to place an order and you can’t promise you can fulfill it, there is a likelihood that instead of risking a lawsuit for non-delivery, you won’t accept the order in the first place. This in turn creates a domino effect that ends with the supply chain eventually breaking down and in severe cases struggles to come back after the crisis – this is what we saw after the Covid crisis, when it took a year plus to bring things back to normal.
Insuring Against the Risk
Do you shell out extra cash for private security? Buy travel insurance? Double-book another hotel just in case? Every extra precaution cost money. For businesses, these extra expenses—whether in cybersecurity, compliance, or crisis management—can eat into profits and make growth nearly impossible. Security, whether its insurance or a bodyguard is more than just the cost – it’s the peace of mind and many will choose to forego the risk, even if they can afford the security.
If you cancel your trip, chances are thousands of others are doing the same. Face it, your favorite resort, the one you’ve been visiting for years, might not survive the downturn. Economic instability shrinks spending, forcing businesses to shutter and markets to tighten. And when the market recovers? Fewer options, higher prices, and an industry scrambling to rebuild to the time before the crisis, which then only prolongs the recovery.
Additionally, business closures emotionally effect a whole segment of the population. We see this in the slow recovery from the pandemic.
Seeking More Stable Grounds
A friend’s son, a top engineering student at an elite U.S. university, has already decided he’ll seek employment overseas—somewhere more stable. Sound familiar? During WWII, Germany lost many of its greatest minds due to political instability. The result? The U.S. and other countries benefited tremendously, while Germany suffered long-term setbacks. Businesses today face the same risk -- when uncertainty rises, top talent leaves. When talent leaves, other countries gain a competitive advantage and competition becomes more acute. Just like the best companies to work for have a better chance of recruiting employees, the best countries can recruit the best employees.
Unstable environments create a hacker’s paradise. Cyberattacks, data breaches, and intellectual property theft skyrocket when businesses are distracted by larger concerns and economic downturns. It may not be as obvious as a closed beach, but trust me, it’s way more damaging to both your bottom line as well as your peace of mind.
Caught Between Two Worlds
Fear impacts consumer behavior. A friend refused to visit a major city for years because the news made it sound like a crime-ridden war zone. The result? Local businesses suffered from misplaced fears, and an entire industry lost revenue. When uncertainty takes hold, people stay home—and when they stop spending, businesses pay the price. During our current crisis, we have seen urban and rural pitted against one another.
This results in rural people refusing to go to cities and vice versa.
It is becoming apparent that in the past ten years mobility in the US has decreased. While there are many theories for this behavior, it is likely that to some degree this is a result of “fear of the others” that has contributed to the current chaotic environment.
Social Media, Whiplash and Blowback
Remember when H&M faced backlash over labor practices? Or Bud Light’s controversial marketing partnership? In today’s social media obsessed world, taking a stand—on anything—can be a reputational gamble. What seems like a smart, progressive move today could be a PR nightmare tomorrow. That kind of uncertainty makes businesses cautious, stifling innovation and growth. While you see many businesses today dropping DEI initiatives because of a perceived threat from the government, who is to say that a whiplash will not take place in a future scenario? This is especially true if retaliation becomes the status quo on politics.
The global economy is a delicate balancing act. Trade barriers, sanctions, and diplomatic conflicts can shut down entire markets overnight. It’s like planning a vacation, only to realize your destination no longer accepts tourists. Your money stays home (assuming you can get a refund), their money stays home, and everyone loses.
A primary reason we are all better off is the flow of money and goods unimpeded across the globe. This has resulted in a higher standard of living for everyone. Is there waste in the system? Of course there is, and governments inability to keep up with corporate efficiency is because governments are not oriented towards investment.
Fund accounting treats capital projects as expenditures and investment funds (sovereign wealth funds, pensions and reserves) are invested in the least risky assets that can be found. If governments were to operate like businesses, capital projects would be on a balance sheet instead of an income statement (called a Statement of Revenues, Expenditures, and Changes in Fund Balances (for governmental funds) or the Statement of Activities.
The problem with this is that most citizens do not want their pension to be put at risk with speculative investments.
Drugs, Guns and Social Unrest
When social unrest rises, so does crime. Keeping people productive and engaged reduces instability, but when economies falter, frustration turns into action—sometimes destructive action. And just like you’d avoid vacationing in an unstable country, businesses will avoid investing in uncertain environments.
Companies are aware of these risks and locations that are unsafe become more so because of fear.
For example, the United States has long been perceived as a place where the rewards were high enough to offset the dangers (drugs and guns). If the tables were to turn and the perceived risk becomes greater than the perceived return then the country enters a death spiral of less income and more desperate citizens.
Your Future as a Moving Target
How do you plan when the future is a moving target?
Long-term strategic plans are out the window. Businesses now operate in shorter cycles, trying to stay ahead of rapidly changing technological, social shifts and other disruptors such as AI? Nobody predicted the exact impact of social media, and yet here we are, watching it reshape us overnight.
Adapting Through the Uncertainty
Since uncertainty isn’t going anywhere, businesses need to adapt. Here are a few thoughts to consider:
Fortify Your Finances.
Diversify revenue streams, increase cash reserves, and hedge against volatility. In the last 20 years, investors have ignored diversification in favor of higher returns from limited asset classes. Companies have done the same and currently everyone is counting on AI. Ai is expensive and if it doesn’t play out the way many hope, having a diversified business is a solid strategy.
Monitor Political & Regulatory Risks.
Invest in scenario planning, build relationships with policymakers, and stay ahead of potential regulatory shifts. Most companies will say they already do, but many companies will admit that in a rapidly changing world, it is too difficult and expensive to keep up. Conventional wisdom would indicate that not doing so is much more expensive.
Optimize Supply Chains.
Diversify suppliers, build redundancy, and streamline operations. Lean and other business process methodologies eliminated slack from the system. In fact, I admit that I was one of the strongest advocates for optimizing the supply chain. Covid proved that we were wrong. It appeared we had learned our lesson, and many companies have created regional supply chain strategies, but there hasn’t been enough time since Covid to rebuild the system and the risks of a repeat are real.
Focus on Talent.
Offer competitive, flexible benefits and upskill employees to prepare them for evolving demands. Even before the current disruptions, companies had a hard time finding good employees. The competition will only get worse and if we continue to devalue higher education, the pipeline will become even more dry. If you are not an employee of choice now, become one as soon as you can.
Stay Agile.
Operate lean, pivot when necessary, and minimize overleveraging. Avoid rigidity and focus on management systems that allow you to quickly pivot. This might mean a more hands on approach by senior managers, but at a minimum improve organizational communications to that you have a better idea of what is happening.
Strengthen Customer Relationships.
Build loyalty programs, analyze consumer behavior, and communicate transparently. On May 11, 2015, Southwest airlines announced that they will be charging for bags. Many people chose Southwest simply because of the free bags, even if they had to endure multiple stops. On that day, it is likely they made a decision that can be justified by the accountants, but it marks the beginning of the end as they destroy customer loyalty and become just another airline.
The Magic Word for Beating Uncertainty
Uncertainty is here to stay, but businesses that adapt can still thrive. Customers, investors, and employees all feel the same anxiety—be the steady hand that guides them. And who knows? With the right strategy (and a little bit of animal spirits), maybe that dream vacation won’t have to be canceled after all.
What’s the magic word? RESILIENCE.