The Case for Space: Companies and Investors Imagine the Next Frontier
By Tim Chrisman, Skytop Contributor / July 4th, 2022
Tim Chrisman is a space policy and geopolitics expert who writes extensively about the future of humanity in space. He leads the Foundation for the Future, a nonprofit based in Washington, D.C. which is leading the policy conversation around space infrastructure. Tim founded the Association for Space Finance, the industry association representing space investors, and whose membership ranges from small family offices to Barclays Investment Bank.
Tim is a former Army officer, who spent nearly a decade leading intelligence teams in combat and special operations units through five deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan. After his military service, Tim was selected to be a special advisor to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff before joining the Central Intelligence Agency. He held multiple assignments at the Agency, including with the Directorate of Operations and Directorate of Analysis, culminating in a role supporting the National Space Council.
Tim studied at American University where he earned his Masters in International Relations and Affairs; the second of his two master’s degrees (the other is in Intelligence Studies). Tim is the author of the book Humanity in Space and is a prolific writer about the expanse of our civilization in space.
Epoch-Shattering, World Changing, or Just Momentous
Sixty-six million years ago, the last truly world-changing event occurred. Call it epoch-shattering, world changing, or just momentous. That event was an asteroid hitting the Earth. It caused a mass extinction event and a global winter, upending nearly 160 million years of one party (dinosaur) rule. Humanity doesn’t need to wait another 100 million years for this epoch to be shattered.
We may not have to wait another decade.
Humans have been around such a short period of time that we like to think the change we see is big and important. But it isn’t. It has been only 400 generations since humanity was eking out a subsistence living in small tribes. Now we are an interconnected, global society whose quality of life is unimaginable to a time traveler from 100 years ago.
This rapid change has come at a cost, a cost measured in lives, resources and capital.
It is a cost that most humans in history would see as worth it. Because staying at home waiting to run out of resources or to be wiped out by the next disaster isn’t humanity’s style. Ultimately it is alien to our species to look away from a great adventure or back down from a great challenge.
At the end of the day, humans simply don’t accept limits.
Like humanity, space has no limits. In that way we are a uniquely suited pair. And like the frontiers of humanity’s past, outer space’s boundless expanse of is only the first of its immeasurable characteristics.
Outer space holds virtually limitless amounts of energy and raw materials, from limitless solar power from the Sun to heavy metals and volatile gasses from the asteroids, which can be harvested for use on Earth and in space. Quality of life can be improved directly by using these resources and indirectly by moving hazardous and polluting industries and/or their waste products off planet Earth.
Limitless Wealth
The resources of our solar system are almost unimaginably vast. To get some idea of their magnitude, consider that just one of the thousands of cataloged Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs), 3354 Amun, is made of iron, nickel, cobalt, and platinum-group metals with an estimated value of $20 trillion dollars. There are literally millions of asteroids just like 3354 Amun…waiting…
Limitless Knowledge
Outer space offers the promise of entirely new fields of engineering. Not just “spinoffs,” items of hardware developed for space that find uses here on Earth. But things that cannot be done at all in the gravity of Earth’s surface.
Humans conquering the ocean ushered in entirely new fields of science and engineering, from shipbuilding to understanding the origins of life.
Outer space holds the promise of even greater radical technological advancement. No longer would humans be on the world that birthed them but would be adapting to the most hostile environment we know of: knowledge. Challenges like that only lead to new knowledge.
We have not even begun to scratch the surface of these possibilities, but they will ultimately transform the Earth’s economy.
Limitless Frontiers
We send people into orbit because orbit is the first step to getting anywhere else. And that is the true purpose of spaceflight: to send people elsewhere, to have people living and working in space, to create new homes for humanity.
We do this because societies that have pushed their frontiers have prospered; those that have not have withered. Space is the ultimate, boundless frontier. Nations are invigorated spiritually, and prosper economically, by challenging and finding new uses for new frontiers.
Take America for example. America is a nation founded on the frontier. From its first settlers to landing on the Moon, we are a nation that has sought out each new frontier and molded it in our image:
In the 18th century, Americans conquered the land. Riding wagons and horses, they expanded. Building off the labor of slaves, their economy developed.
In the 19th century, they conquered the world’s oceans. Trading ships visited every port on the planet, enabling new exports. This success was enabled through the work of child labor and exploited populations.
In the 20th century, America took to the skies. Their planes ended two world wars, resupplied starving cities, and ultimately made travel to anywhere accessible to the masses. This was possible because those planes also carried soldiers, bombs, and nuclear weapons.
Now, in the 21st century, space is open to us. And for the first time in our species’ history we can explore, exploit, and expand without harming anyone or anything.
Limitless Inspiration
In 1913, Earnest Shakleton, in preparation for his Antarctic expedition, placed the following newspaper ad: “Men wanted for hazardous journey. Small wages. Bitter cold. Long months of complete darkness. Constant danger. Safe return doubtful. Honour and recognition in case of success.” More than 5,000 men answered the call.
It wasn’t for jobs or money: the British economy was at its prewar peak.
So why did they clamor for the chance to risk life and limb for an uncertain and intangible reward?
They answered because they wanted to be a part of history.
Similarly, the Apollo generation worked long hours to learn and apply the difficult science and engineering skills that they would need to put footprints where no human footprints had ever been before and hoped it would be their boots that would make them.
No quest for material gain or abstract altruism could inspire that level of dedication and sacrifice. It is the grand adventure of reaching new worlds which kindles the best minds of a generation. The legacy of the race to the moon is not a half-dozen faded flags and a few footprints in the lunar dust. It is an educated workforce that has turned its talents to many other high-tech challenges, from computer design to medicine.
Putting footprints where no footprints have been will always have the power to inspire hard work and discipline, with all their attendant benefits to society as a whole, and there are plenty of new worlds left for that purpose.
The Power of NOW
Last time there was an epoch-shattering change coming there was no option to influence the outcome. Now it is different. Now this change is being driven by the innovation of entrepreneurs, investors, and governments.
As this change accelerates, and as geopolitical realities move to the forefront, companies and investors face a choice. A choice about what type of socio-economic and geopolitical system we have in space. Will it be modeled on the state planning of China, the kleptocracy of Russia, or the free market ideals of the West?
We have a chance to influence the course of history here and can take steps over the next decade to ensure that humanity emerges stronger from this change. It is time for those of us who value the free market to step up.
How Space Will Affect Companies and Investors
If you are an executive in a non-space company, this may be the first time you are thinking about how space might affect your business.
Don’t let it be the last. Space, like the internet, will permeate the business world to the point where every company will be a space company. Already companies as diverse as John Deere, Komatsu and NVIDIA are making plays to commercialize space.
None of them are diverging from their core competencies. They recognize that if we need something on the ground, we are almost certainly going to need its equivalent in space.
If you are an investor looking to hedge against climate change, inflation and/or just trying to make sure you don’t miss the next big thing, you are going to want space in your portfolio. This could be as simple as investing in a space-focused ETF. It might mean investing in one of the space-sector’s venture funds, or one of the larger funds who are making plays in the sector. At the end of the day it doesn’t matter how you invest, the sector is capital intensive, but saw less than $15B in investment in 2021 (about 10% more than the US agricultural sector).
If you are in government, you aren’t off the hook because your country has a space program.
For too long national space programs have focused on science and exploration. Now defense is being added in. But there is little to no real effort to encourage the commercial side of space. Instead, many governments are hoping that their science-focused space agencies can encourage economic development.
Or worse, hoping their militaries will.
This hasn’t worked for any other sector of the economy. It won’t work for space. Instead, countries should stand up development-focused agencies with a mandate to increase national economic output through investment and expanded employment in the space sector.
Dinosaur is frequently a term of derision. A slur meaning someone is too blind to change; too slow to improve, or too stubborn to improve. All those terms were applicable to the first dinosaurs to face a changing epoch.
They had no choice but to accept their fate, but humanity is better than that.
We have a choice, and because of that this asteroid won’t hit us; instead, we will be hitting the asteroid.